The central bank's interest rate decision, coupled with inventory pressure, may cause copper prices to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term [SMM Copper Morning Comment]

SMM News on June 17: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,678.5/mt, touching a low of $9,664/mt shortly after the opening bell. It then rose slightly before pulling back and fluctuating rangebound. Towards the end of the session, it surged to a high of $9,719.5/mt and eventually closed at $9,695/mt, up 0.49%. Trading volume reached 13,000 lots, and open interest stood at 268,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE copper 2507 contract opened at 78,640 yuan/mt, fluctuating rangebound in the early session and touching a low of 78,470 yuan/mt. It then fluctuated upward and surged to a high of 78,730 yuan/mt towards the end of the session, before pulling back slightly and closing at 78,650 yuan/mt, up 0.45%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest stood at 189,000 lots. On the macro side, despite the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, the US dollar did not exhibit strong safe-haven demand. Meanwhile, the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Riksbank, and Norges Bank are all set to announce their interest rate decisions, and the US dollar index still has some downside room, which is bullish for copper prices. On the fundamental side, due to contract rollover yesterday, most suppliers' selling sentiment weakened, and they were unwilling to sell at low prices. There were significant differences in copper cathode prices among various brands during the day, with large fluctuations in premiums for different brands. High-quality copper supply was tight, and premiums for some brands were relatively high. As of Monday, June 16, SMM's copper inventories in major regions across China increased by 2,900 mt from last Friday to 147,700 mt, marking the third consecutive Monday of inventory buildup. Compared with the inventory changes from last Thursday, inventories in most regions across the country increased. In terms of prices, as it is difficult for macro and fundamental factors to form a resonance, the upside room for copper prices is expected to be limited today.